The renewed political romance between the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Abubakar Atiku and his Labour Party counterpart, Mr Peter Obi, is not new. But will it last this time and in whose presidential interest? SODIQ OMOLAOYE reports.
When Prof. Pat Utomi, in January this year, hinted of the possibility of opposition parties coming together to form a mega party to wrestle power from All Progressives Congress (APC), many thought he was day-dreaming.
But the political economist did not emphasise the importance of the opposition political leaders to form an alliance for a strong and credible opposition, which may eventually metamorphosed into another strong political party.
That is why the recent political romance between the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Abubakar Atiku, and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, in the 2023 general elections, did not come as a surprise to many Nigerians.
Obi, who started the political moves after Atiku had earlier called for the merger of the opposition parties, also met separately with the erstwhile governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, and former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, in Abuja. The parley, which came at quick successions, is believed to be part of an upcoming strategic alliance ahead of 2027 general elections.
Atiku and Obi are on familiar terrain. Both had worked together when Obi was in the PDP and as a former running mate to Atiku in 2019 general elections. He dumped PDP for the LP in May 2022 to pursue his presidential ambition.
Chief spokesman of Obi’s Presidential Campaign Organisation, Yunusa Tanko, explained that the closed-door meeting with the PDP big wigs bothered on how to rescue the ‘soul of Nigeria’ from the misrule of the ruling party.
Atiku, also in a recent interview with BBC Hausa Service, hinted of a possible alliance when he said that if the PDP decided in 2027 that it was the Southeast’s turn to field the presidential candidate and selected Obi, he would readily offer his support.
But shortly after declaring his conditional support for Obi, the former vice president, who has contested for the presidency five times in this democratic dispensation also declared that he has not given up on his presidential ambition.
The Guardian gathered that Obi’s visit to the top northern politicians was a continuation of his tour of key stakeholders from the region after visiting numerous mosques in northern Muslim communities in Nasarawa, Niger, Kebbi, Bauchi, Gombe, Sokoto, and Kaduna, during Ramadan where he commissioned multi-million naira boreholes in most of these states. It is also part of his efforts to boost his popularity among the northern communities after the 2023 election results showed that he was not popular in Muslim majority states in the north.
But the APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, while stating the official position of the party on the development, said both Atiku and Obi are, “united by their mutual desperation to be president of Nigeria.”
Also, the special adviser on information and strategy to the President, Bayo Onanuga, also said that Obi’s return to the PDP would not be surprising, noting that, “his reputation as a political wayfarer is only dwarfed by Atiku’s track record as a veteran political wanderer of tangible accommodation for both men.”
What is yet to be clear, however, is the chances of Obi returning to the PDP or the possibility of a merger between LP and PDP. Another puzzle is whether Atiku and Obi can dump their respective party to form or adopt another one if the merger becomes impossible and who will be the presidential candidate of the new party.
Feelers from both PDP and LP leaders are indicating that, apart from their presidential candidates in the last general election, most members are not keen on the merger. But they favour alliance, which will still allow the parties to retain their structures and identities.
Indeed, some LP leaders have ruled out subsuming the party under the PDP, citing ideological differences, just as the national chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero denied knowledge of the LP merger talk with the PDP. “We are not aware of such talks,” he said.
Besides, Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said the discussion of both leaders was about fostering a working relationship in form of alliance, not a merger, which will compel both parties to dismantle their existing structure.
He said: They don’t have to necessarily collapse, you know, the parties are there for one platform. No, they could just say, you have a followership in this party, but we are calling you to identify with this party, but you are still recognising your identified platform, but for exigency, you can just collapse your structure into this party, and first of all, win the election and then we begin to talk about how to share the responsibility.
“Not like the regular alliance APC did in 2014 to oust the PDP out of power. NO, LP is not ready to relinquish its name and structure into PDP. Our party is not willing to do the same, but the politicians in these parties are willing.”
Nigerians are waiting to see how such marriage of convenience will bring the desired result of defeating APC in the 2027 general election.
There are also those who think that President Tinubu’s political machinery and APC’s stronghold on power should not be underestimated. These observers believe that APC has a robust political structure and intimidating war chest, which would make it difficult for any opposition alliance to dislodge it from power.
Another issue that might hinder the planned merger from becoming a reality, analysts said, is the choice of who becomes the presidential candidate from such a merger.
Already, Atiku has served as vice president of Nigeria twice from 1999 to 2007 under President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Some analysts have reasoned that Atiku, with his vast political network and experience may not stoop so low to become a running mate to the former Anambra governor who only became governor after Atiku has served his two terms as vice president.
The question on the lips of many political observers is that would Obi accept to be Atiku’s running mate again, considering that he has gained wide acceptance among youths and a cross section of Nigerians.
Feelers have it that supporters of the former Anambra governor are also likely to feel betrayed if he accepts to be running mate to Atiku, as it will seem Obi has abandoned his promise to bring the desired change instead of opting for political expediency. Already, his recent visit to Atiku and other PDP chieftains has been heavily criticised for embracing the very people he once vowed to challenge.
But Atiku in an interview has denied that the choice of presidential candidate might frustrate the merger discussion. He said, “That’s not true. That challenge will not arise. I can tell you that the choice of who will fly the flag of the party won’t be an issue.”
One thing is certain, however, the 2027 elections will be shaped by political maneuvering and Obi-Atiku’s romance is just the beginning.
President of Northern Consensus Movement (NCM), Dr Awwal Aliyu Abdullahi, told The Guardian that there was nothing wrong with timing of the visits, saying there are rooms for political alignment and realignment especially when election approaches.
He said it is natural for political parties to align and realign, towards winning elections, noting that it is equally natural for candidates or political players to visit each other, discuss politics, and see how they can come together as one team to work towards dislodging another political party.
He said, “I think the recent meeting between Atiku and Peter Obi is just one of the strategies politicians do adopt to win elections. So, it is also a good development. You find alignment and realignment. Don’t forget, not too long ago also there was a time when the presidential candidate of NNPP visited President Tinubu and there was a lot of insinuation.
Politics is a game of interest, what politicians do is to put their interest first?”
He said both Atiku and Obi must work together to produce a merger that won’t be to service selfish interest if they want to oust APC.
“If they continue on the same momentum and put the interest of the people first, they can do wonders, but then, will Atiku accept to be running mate to Peter Obi? I doubt much. Will Peter Obi agree to be a running mate to Atiku? That is also a million dollar question. Peter Obi has this belief that he can be a good president. Atiku also has this belief that he has the experience to turn around the fortune of this country. So, I think they need to work together. First talk to themselves. Believe that it is not about them, it’s about Nigeria.”
National Coordinator, Coalition of the Northern Groups (CNG), Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi, said the most important thing right now is for Nigerians to make a right choice, saying politicians must also allow the incumbent president and the process to work.
Lamenting that Nigeria has been choosing wrongly in the last two decades, he said the country needs leaders that can unite the people and solve its security and economic challenges.
Charanchi said: “We seriously need leaders. Leaders that are not biased either with ethnicity or religion. Leaders that can unite this country towards achieving the desired goal. Leaders that at least can take this country away from the insecurity situation, the economic downtrodden. We are having all these kinds of challenges.”
