For the first time since 1999, Nigeria’s presidential election went into a three horse race in 2023. In a like manner, the Edo gubernatorial election which has always been a two horse race is a battle among three gladiators this year. At the centre of the change is Labour Party whose candidate came third in last year’s election. In Edo, LP’s Peter Obi towered above Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Perhaps, this was the factor which made Olumide Akpata, former President of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) to throw his hat in the ring.
In this piece, Daily Trust briefly examines the chances of the candidates.
The Edo election is the first off season governorship election to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in this election cycle and all eyes are on the electoral umpire to conduct a free, fair and transparent election.
By Saturday September 21, 2024, Asue Ighodalo of the PDP; Monday Okpebholo of the APC and Olumide Akpata of the LP would slug it out in what is expected to be a keenly contested poll.
To start with, the anxiety, apprehension and the horse-trading preceding the election have raised fears among the electorate in the state going by the pockets of violence that have been witnessed during the electioneering.
How the candidates stand
No doubt, each of the candidates commands huge followership among the electorate of Edo State.
ASUE IGHODALO
To start with, Ighodalo is the candidate of the sitting governor. It has become a norm in Nigeria’s political firmament that an outgoing governor would anoint a successor and he would do everything legally and illegally possible to ensure victory for his anointed candidate. Political pundits have not been able to unravel the intricacies around the outgoing governors anointing successors. While some say it is to cover their wrongdoings in government which could warrant the preying eyes of the anti-corruption agencies, others believe it is to continue to enjoy some perks of the office after leaving the exalted position.
Therefore, Obaseki is doing everything possible to produce a successor in Ighodalo and he has even described the election as a do-or-die affair, alleging partiality by the security agencies and the electoral umpire.
So the power of incumbency remains the first factor that would determine the outcome of the election and the performance of the governor in the last eight years. The governor appears to be popular among the labour union which explains why the movement has endorsed the candidate of the PDP.
The APC might be the ruling party at the centre, controlling the security apparatuses, the situation of the country, the economic hardship, the cost of living crisis and the pervasive hunger might also sway the electorate to revolt against the APC in the state.
Ighodalo is from Edo Central, which has 356,959 registered voters, the least among the three senatorial districts.
MONDAY OKPEBHOLO
Monday Okpebholo, the APC candidate, is the Senator representing the Central Senatorial District in the National Assembly. Like Ighodalo, he is from the zone which has the least vote in the state, meaning both of them would split the votes. Okpebholo is not a novice in the state’s politics. As an incumbent Senator, he no doubt wields considerable power in determining the political direction of the state.
With the backing of former Governor Adams Oshiomhole who is the Senator representing Edo North Senatorial district, he is considered a formidable candidate in the election. The election is like a re-enactment of the supremacy battle between Oshiomhole and Obaseki. After four years, the opportunity presents itself for Oshiomhole to confront his estranged Godson again. Having defeated his candidate in 2020, Oshiomhole is ready to stage a comeback this time around, banking on his popularity as the leader of the APC in the state.
While the PDP and APC candidates are battling for the votes from their zone, Oshiomhole would be trying hard to control the votes from Edo North, which has a total of 629,397 eligible voters, while Obaseki who is from the South, where there are 1,254,424 registered voters, the highest, would also try to hold firmly to his senatorial district.
The APC candidate might also be banking on federal support which is not unlikely being the candidate of the sitting President. Already, Obaseki’s camp is jittery, accusing the federal agencies, especially the security agencies, of partiality in the election.
OLUMIDE AKPATA
It was a revolution of some sort when Akpata contested for the President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), a position seen as the exclusive right of Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SAN). To win the election, Akpata appealed to the lawyers outside the exclusive category and they gave him their support. Compare that to what the Obidient movement did in 2023 and you may not be wrong.
The candidate himself is not ashamed to admit that he is riding on the popularity of Peter Obi, the man behind the Tsunami which changed the tide in last year’s election. In one of the last interviews he granted as the campaign wound down, Akpata said Obi’s endorsement of his candidacy is worth its weight in gold.
“Peter Obi is making a whole lot of difference because he is one individual that people trust. People trust him because his word is his bond. People trust Peter Obi because he’s a performer and so his endorsement of my candidacy is worth its weight in gold and so I make no bones about it.”
“I will not hesitate to take advantage of the fact that he supports me and those of you who know Obi, he will only associate with a candidate he has confidence in, every confidence in his or her abilities. So I’m fortunate, I’m privileged that he’s willing to stand shoulder to shoulder with me on the podium, on various podiums across the state,” he told ARISE TV.
However, some analysts believe the LP has lost traction after the 2023 poll. More so the deep-seated leadership crisis in the party could work against Akpata in the election. Though Obi was in Edo to rally support for Akpata ahead of the election, political pundits doubt the potency of LP to repeat its performance during the presidential election in 2023.
Hailing from Edo South which has the highest number of registered voters could have been an advantage but the sentiments of having another son of the zone returning to office after eight years of another could work against Akpata.
Peter Ekiamenor, an Edo resident, shared this sentiment while commenting on the political situation in the state.
“Oshiomhole from Edo North spent 8 years at Dennis Osadebe House, Obaseki from Edo South is about packing his bag after two tenures. Where naturally should power go? Trust me, many people feel that it is time for the governorship to shift to Edo Central in the interest of equity. This is no secret,” Ekiamenor told Daily Trust.
Regardless of the situation, ratings have shown that Akpata remains one of the formidable candidates in the election. Be that as it may, voters in Edo anticipate a free, fair and peaceful contest devoid of blood-shed and violence. By this time next week, Edo should have a governor-in-waiting.
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