Nigeria Newspapers Online

Special Adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Policy Communications, Daniel Bwala, has claimed that the policies of the current administration are reducing food inflation as prices of food items are gradually coming down.

While appearing on an episode of Arise News flagship programme, “The Morning Show”, earlier this week, Bwala noted that the economic policies of the current administration were on track.

“Our economic policies in my assessment have been doing very well. This is because where we were before the President took the oath of office and where we are today from the economic standpoint, economist say it is safe to assume that Nigeria is not to be dealt with a feeling that it is going into disintegration because the fundamentals of economy have been put in place.

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“We are dealing with a nation whose national budget is less than $30bn and our infrastructure is in decadence as we do don’t have good roads and our hospitals are dead and we are navigating with limited resources. The current food inflation has gone down because food prices are going down. The general inflation of the last month was far better than the previous month,” Bwala said.

Daily Trust verified the claim by the Presidential spokesman and found out it misleading as food inflation figures as released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been on the rise since May 2023 when President Tinubu took office.

Although figures for December show that food inflation had slightly moderated, the figures have been on the rise from 24.82 per cent recorded in May to the latest figure of 39.84 per cent. Also, the prices of food items have surged since the current administration came to power in 2023.

Breakdown of food inflation figures from June 2023 till date

A breakdown of inflation figures as analysed by Daily Trust show that in the month of June 2023, uptick in the inflation rate was largely driven by the food index, as food inflation accelerated to 25.25% in the review month compared to 24.82% recorded in May 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.40%, which was 0.21% points higher compared to the rate recorded in May 2023 (2.19%).

The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fruits, meat, vegetable, milk, cheese, and eggs.

In July 2023, food inflation rate rose from 25.25 per cent to 26.9 per cent. The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of Oil and fat, Bread and cereals, Fish, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fruits, Meat, Vegetable, Milk, Cheese, and Eggs.

In the same vein, Nigeria’s food inflation rate in August 2023 was 29.34% on a year-on-year basis. This represents a 6.22%, points increase compared to the rate recorded in August 2022, which was 23.12%

For the month of September, Nigeria’s food inflation rate in September 2023 was 30.64% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022. This increase was part of a broader trend, as the headline inflation rate also rose to 26.72% in September 2023, up from 25.80% in August 2023, just as food inflation rate in October 2023 moved upwards from 31.52% on a year-on-year basis. This was 7.80% points higher compared to the rate recorded in October 2022 (23.72%).

Similarly, food inflation rate in November 2023 again rose to 32.84% on a year-on-year basis, which was 8.72% points higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2022 (24.13%), while food inflation rate in December 2023 surged again to 33.93% on a year-on-year basis. This represents a 10.1 per cent points increase compared to the rate recorded in December 2022, which was 23.75%

In the year 2024, food inflation rate in January 2024 skyrocketed from 33.9 per cent to 35.41 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This represents a significant increase of 11.10% points compared to the rate recorded in January 2023, which was 24.32%. The rising inflation was largely attributed to the removal of fuel subsidies and currency devaluation, which affected the production costs of food items, particularly carbohydrates.

In February 2024, Nigeria’s food inflation rate in February 2024 was 37.92% on a year-on-year basis, marking a significant increase of 13.57% points compared to the rate recorded in February 2023, which stood at 24.35% . This rise in food inflation was part of a broader trend, with the country’s headline inflation rate also increasing by 31.70% year-on-year in February 2024.

In March 2024, food inflation was 40.01% on a year-on-year basis, marking a significant increase of 15.56% points compared to the rate recorded in March 2023, which stood at 24.45 per cent and by April 2024, food inflation had reached an all time high of 40.53% on a year-on-year basis, marking a significant increase of 15.92 percentage points compared to the rate recorded in April 2023, which stood at 24.61% .

In May 2024, Nigeria’s food inflation rate increased slightly to 40.66% year-on-year, which was a 15.84% increase from the same month in 2023. This was due to rising prices of food items like oil, yam, cassava, fish, and meat.

By June 2024, food inflation rate further surged in the month under review, hitting 40.87% year-on-year compared to 40.66% recorded in May 2024. This is 15.62 percentage points higher than the rate of 25.25% recorded in June 2023 on a year-on-year analysis. By July 2024, for the first time, food inflation declined to 39.53% on a year-on-year basis, but 12.55% points higher compared to the rate recorded in July 2023 (26.98%).

In August, the country’s food inflation further declined to 37.52%, representing a decrease from 39.53% in July 2024, driven by the harvest season and base year effects Nigeria’s. the downward trend continued in September 2024 as inflation saw a further reduction to 37.77%. However, on a year-over-year, it recorded a significant increase of 7.13 percentage points compared to the 30.64% recorded in September 2023.

In October 2024, food inflation surged to 39.16 per cent according to NBS. The Bureau said the increase was driven by sharp rises in the prices of staples such as guinea corn, rice, maize grains, and yam, as well as palm oil, vegetable oil, and beverages like Milo, Lipton, and Bournvita.

Subsequently, food inflation rate went up again in November 2024 to 39.93%. On a year-over-year, it marked a significant increase of 7.08% from the 32.84% recorded in November 2023. This surge was driven by higher prices of essential food items, contributing to the country’s overall inflation rate of 34.60% in November 2024

The latest figures in December show that food inflation declined insignificantly by 0.09 percentage point to 39.84 percent from 39.93 percent in November.

Also, a sample of food commodities by Daily Trust has shown that their prices have risen in the last one year.

For instance, the prices of beans, yam, fish, rice, maize and other staples have increased by over 100 per cent in the almost two years since the current administration took over power.

Although in May 2023, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food security, seeking to address surging food costs, the declaration has not had significant impact on the prices of food items.

Also, the CBN has continued to tighten monetary rates in the last one year with no significant impact on food inflation.

In the same vein, the ministry of finance had measures for the suspension of duties, tariffs, and taxes on key food imports, including beans, wheat, and husked brown rice. These steps were aimed at curbing skyrocketing prices, but their impact has been limited so far.

Consequently, despite these interventions, food inflation has shown little sign or no sign of easing.

Conclusion

Daily Trust verified and found out that the claim of Mr. Bwala and largely false and misleading as inflation has maintained an upward surge from 25 per cent to 39 per cent since the coming of Tinubu and had just relaxed by 0.09 per cent in December 2024 according to the NBS.