As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in national polling averages.
With election day set for Nov. 5, Harris is polling at 48.2%, while Trump follows closely at 46.4%, according to recent data from ABC News and 538.
However, the national numbers do not tell the full story. The race remains fiercely competitive in key battleground states, where the election will likely be decided.
Both candidates are locked in a virtual tie in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Trump, who won these states in 2016 but lost them in 2020, hopes to reclaim them, while Harris aims to maintain her slim edge.
Pennsylvania, with the highest number of electoral votes among the swing states, is critical for both campaigns. With 19 electoral votes, Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, with Trump slightly ahead at 47.9% to Harris’s 47.5%. Winning this state could heavily tilt the election in either candidate’s favor.
Michigan, which flipped back to the Democrats in 2020 after Trump’s 2016 win, is another key state Harris needs to retain. With 15 electoral votes, Harris holds a narrow lead, polling at 47.4% compared to Trump’s 47.2%.
Wisconsin has been a battleground since 2016, and both candidates are vying to win this pivotal Midwest state. With 10 electoral votes, Harris is ahead in Wisconsin, with 47.8% compared to Trump’s 47.6%.
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Arizona remains one of the tightest contests, with 11 electoral votes. The state, which voted for Biden in 2020, will be a significant bellwether for both parties, with Trump ahead at 48.6%, while Harris at 46.7%.
After flipping blue in 2020, Georgia has become a critical state for Democrats to defend in 2024. With 16 electoral votes, Trump has a slim advantage in Georgia, leading with 48.7% to Harris’s 46.9%.
North Carolina remains a battleground, having leaned towards Republicans in recent cycles, but Democrats are hopeful to make gains this year. With 16 electoral votes, Trump holds a narrow lead in North Carolina at 48%, with Harris polling at 47.5%.
With 6 electoral votes, Harris is slightly ahead in Nevada, with 47.6% compared to Trump’s 47.1%. This small but crucial swing state remains a key target for both campaigns as they compete for its electoral votes.
The tight margins underscore the unpredictability of the race, with both candidates vying for the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
Though Harris has seen a steady lead since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July, the contest remains too close to call in crucial swing states.
If Trump holds onto his leads in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, while flipping Pennsylvania, he could secure the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Conversely, if Harris can maintain her lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while regaining ground in Pennsylvania, she would be on course to become the nation’s first woman president.
With swing states holding the balance, the 2024 election is shaping up to be another closely contested race, with both candidates battling for every vote in the final days before Nov. 5.
