Another curious aspect of presidential type democracy absent in the one practiced in Nigeria is the U.S. electoral college system, which made it possible for Trump to win the presidency in 2016 despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
After Trump defeated Biden in the June 27 presidential debate, he is now reported to have lost the September 11 debate to Harris, according to a CNN flash poll. This result is seen by some as a form of revenge for Harris after Trump’s earlier victory over Biden. However, polls taken shortly after debates may not reflect the final outcome accurately. Despite Harris’s strong performance in style and demeanor during the debate, Trump remains favored by some voters on key issues like the economy and immigration, which are crucial for the 2024 presidential race.
Interestingly, President Biden’s bid for a second term was derailed by a disastrous debate outcome that led his party to replace him with Vice President Harris as the DNC candidate. Biden’s failure to manage the economy, which has been plagued by inflation and a high cost of living, was his main shortcoming. He was not facing impeachment, a common reason for modern U.S. presidents failing to seek re-election. For instance, Richard Nixon did not seek a second term due to the Watergate scandal, while Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden all faced challenges either from party renomination issues or defeat by the opposition.
Carter’s loss in 1980 was due to several factors:
1. Economic Troubles: High inflation (14.8%), unemployment (7.5%), and an energy crisis created a difficult economic environment. Similar economic issues are affecting Biden today.
2. Iran Hostage Crisis: The 444-day hostage crisis made Carter appear weak, paralleling how the ongoing Israeli-Gaza conflict has affected Biden’s image.
3. Foreign Policy Issues: Carter faced criticism for his handling of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and other foreign policy matters. Similarly, Biden is criticized for the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
4. Internal Party Conflicts: Carter’s primary challenge from Senator Ted Kennedy weakened him, similar to how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent run is impacting Biden.
5. Challenger’s Strong Campaign: Ronald Reagan’s effective campaign capitalized on Carter’s weaknesses. Trump is often compared to Reagan for his outsider status and campaign style.
6. Shift to Conservatism: The 1980 election marked a shift towards conservatism, a trend that echoes today as Trump positions himself against the liberal agenda of Harris.
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This shift highlights a continuing struggle in American politics between conservative and liberal ideologies.
It is remarkable how the political landscape in the U.S. in 2024 mirrors that of 1980, 44 years ago. The parallels between Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Donald Trump today, as well as between Jimmy Carter then and Joe Biden now, are striking. Unlike Carter, Biden anticipated a similar outcome and chose to step aside, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the DNC ticket. This strategic move has given the DNC new momentum, making the current race a close contest.
If the RNC had similarly replaced Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, with someone like Nikki Haley or Sarah Palin, the dynamics of the race might have shifted significantly. Haley might have countered Harris’s appeal to minority voters, and Palin could have strengthened gender equality arguments, which currently favor the RNC.
Pope Francis’s recent comments on the U.S. presidential race, urging Catholic voters to choose the “lesser of two evils,” might not dramatically change the decisions of the 52 million U.S. Catholics, but it could clarify choices for some voters and heighten political tensions. Pope Francis criticized both candidates on moral grounds: Trump for his stance on immigration and Harris for her support of abortion rights. His intervention stands out because he typically avoids commenting on party politics.
Just like Trump’s controversial comments about Haitian immigrants and the resulting threats against them such as the claim that there has been bomb threats in schools in Haitian community in Ohio, calling Trump a threat to democracy whose re-election would result in end of democracy may have contributed to the recent spikes in assassination attempts against the 45th president of the U.S.
His unconventional approach, including his strict immigration policies targeting illegal immigrants, as is the case in Europe where illegal immigrants are also under attack, challenges American traditional practices and may contribute to the animosity he faces.
Also, the criticism Trump receives from American technocrats about his alleged departure from traditional political norms are akin to the backlash faced by past leaders who were deemed to have deviated from established practices. Like Ronald Reagan and Trump, who both entered politics from outside traditional bureaucratic paths, Trump’s outsider status has shaped both his support and opposition.
Despite currently facing prosecution, if not persecution, Trump remains a prominent contender and powerful front-runner for the presidency in the upcoming November 5th election. The belief that his repeated escapes from assassination attempts might signify a higher destiny suggests he could be poised to return as the 47th president of the U.S.
May God save Donald Trump
• Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former Commissioner in Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng
