Prof. Lai Olurode was a National Commissioner at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In this interview with ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE, the former Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Lagos, said the coming together of Atiku Abukabar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is in the interest of Nigerian voters, as they will have a clear choice between two major parties in the 2027 elections. The Professor of Sociology noted that if both gladiators want to oust the All Progressives Congress (APC) from power, nothing is too much for them to sacrifice. He also spoke on the crisis in Rivers State and the controversies surrounding the National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje.
A couple of days ago, Peter Obi met former Vice President Atiku Abubakar with a view to working together ahead of the 2027 polls. Do you think something reasonable will come out of that movement?
Well, in politics nothing is impossible once one group is willing to forgo its selfish interest, if what you are seeking is to access power by whatever democratic means possible. That is competitive in a democracy. Of course, there will be movement around major interests and tendencies. The opposition is anxious to stop being the out-group. The APC isn’t going to go into slumber. It can’t let the crown go easily and without a whimper. The major opposition parties, in this case, will be said to be the Labour Party and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Of course, one can say that Obi was and is still a creation of the PDP. He was in the PDP for quite some time. But again, he lost out in the struggle to clinch the PDP presidential ticket.
So, they might be thinking, how did the APC get to power?
Certainly, APC, by the merger of 2013, has provided a working guide on how opposition political parties can smile at power and annul the power of incumbency. The opposition elements realised that they could not fight the battle alone unless they pool political and economic resources. They ensured that different opposition parties at that time – the Congress for Progressive Change CPC), the All Nigeria People’s Party, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – came together to form a party. I don’t know what the understanding is going to be between the PDP and the Labour Party; whether it’s going to be just an alliance to win the presidential election or it’s going to be a merger. So, it’s not a bad move, because it’s going to give Nigerians a clear choice between the two parties.
Of course, one can say that both the PDP and the APC are not radically different from each other in terms of ideology. But it is not really a case of making choices between the fingers of a leprous hand. The APC seems more inclined towards social welfarism in the context of private capital accumulation. Of course, there have been a lot of seamless defections in and out of the two parties. People are now decamping into the APC, because it’s the winning party and everybody wants to be a winner. Whether this will be long-lasting or temporary one can’t know. The presidential contest is still far away in 2027. I can recall that the merger that culminated in the formation of the APC started in 2013, well ahead of the 2015 elections. If the goal is to seek power, then they have to sacrifice some things. One of the leading partners in the relationship can sacrifice his ambition. The sacrifice can come from Atiku or Obi or both. Then, they can look for a younger person who will be formidable and acceptable to the two parties.
But, personally, I feel bothered that it’s just about power grab. In the merger that birthed the APC, the defunct ACN was the leading partner with about five governors in its kitty; yet, it made a sacrifice for the CPC, which had one governor to produce the presidential candidate. The personality of Buhari with his mass followership in the North must be a key factor.
Obi seems capable of mustering some strength in the East but the electoral asset or voting strength is minimal. The defunct ACN looked at the bigger picture and sacrificed all in order to extend its tentacles beyond the Southwest, which was its main political constituency. The ACN gladiators were patient enough. After the first term, the then president said he was going for a second term. They tolerated that and waited for eight long years.
Most Nigerian politicians cannot defer their political consumption; they jostle for early returns on their political investments. The goal is very important. What is your intention? What do you want to achieve? And what are the main means that will enable you to achieve that goal?
What form of relationship do you recommend between the PDP and the other parties?
I could recall during the First Republic that the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) led by Zik formed an alliance and joined hands to even form a government. But after a while, the NCNC said it was going to get out of the alliance and that was not satisfactory to the NPC.
Again, in the Second Republic, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) went into an alliance with the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) to form a government. The NPP expressed dissatisfaction and the NPN under the leadership of Adisa Akinloye said once your wife had given you a notice to divorce, you don’t allow that woman to stay in your house again. They said they should just leave immediately, because the NPN had become more confident and consolidated power. The party believed that even without the NPP, it’s going to win. So, I wouldn’t recommend an alliance.
From what I have seen, merger has worked. The 2013 case of the APC offers a classical example, which I refer to as a revolution. Nobody thought it was feasible that the Southwest and the far North or the Northwest could pool their political arsenal together, forgo their identities, to form a formidable party, the largest party in West Africa. Under the leadership of the pioneer chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, the merger of different tendencies was consummated and managed. This led to their victory in 2015. In 2019, the party also won and repeated the same feat in 2023 to deliver a president from the South.
So, 2027 , I’m certain they will want to do all they can to make sure that they retain power. Maybe the opposition parties now have gone back to the drawing board and are ready to sacrifice whatever idiosyncrasies they have. So, I would recommend a merger. An alliance may not be too strong. With a merger, they can become one strong political family that can go out there and test their political strength.
If they merge, do you think the Labour Party or PDP would like to lose its identity?
If they aren’t committed to doing so, why come together? But think of an alliance between the North and the Southeast. How feasible is it if the East is the leading party?
As I said, it depends on what they ultimately want to get out of it. If they want to oust the APC, then nothing should be too much for them to sacrifice. Of what political significance is an identity that cannot guarantee you power?
From what we have seen of the PDP in 2023, one has seen what the wrong choice can do to a party. I think the party was not circumspect and sensitive enough in 2023 to the feelings of political exclusion as being mentioned by the people of southern Nigeria. There was also the question of justice. After President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration for eight years at the Presidency, nobody from the North should have had the moral right and justification from the region to contest for the office. The PDP, nonetheless, thought it was strong enough that even without some people, it could still win the presidential election. Some lessons have been learned now that it is better to work together with an understanding and see how they can share power. The Nigerian mentality is that of ‘turn-by-turn’; wait for your turn. Even at the state and the local government levels, it is almost the same. It is all about inclusivity.
If you look at the 2023 election, those that supported Obi called themselves Obidients. They want a radical change at all cost and they saw Obi as a clear departure from the norm. If Obi now goes into an alliance or a merger, thereby losing his identity, do you think the Obidients bloc will still support him?
There have been a lot of movements, dissipation of political resources and the issues that galvanised and strengthened the Obidients group. I’m not sure those forces are the same today. People have become wiser, especially youths who have joined hands with others. It might be very difficult now, because at that time, the Obi tremor was very strong. I looked at the election statistics, especially the voter’s behaviour in the East, Abuja and other places who overwhelmingly voted for Obi. Obi was able to also garner some strength outside the Southeast zone. In the South-south, he garnered some strength. In some cases, he outsmarted the PDP. I’m not sure it will be possible to resuscitate or to garner such a political momentum and strength again as he did in 2023. It is going to be very difficult. So, I think it might be pretty difficult to reproduce the Obidients’ phenomenal essence in 2027.
With either a merger or an alliance, are the PDP and Labour Party not a threat to the APC? I also heard that Obi is also reaching out to the North…
As I said, it depends on what kind of alliance they intend to form.
Don’t forget, once a political party makes the wrong choice of candidates or sets for the wrong zone prior to any election that can cause a lot of ripples within the political party, things will become disruptive. However, if the political parties can come together as a strong party, that’s PDP, Labour Party and the NNPP, pooling resources together will pose a challenge to the APC and might erode its political resources. It may force it to seek friendship across the country.
Again, that might be in the interest of the ordinary voters, because it means that an average Nigerian voter will be getting value for his or her vote. If the parties compete effectively, there will be two parties competing instead of three. That will throw up a lot of things. It might be difficult to woo voters easily. Even in business, each time a monopoly is broken by a competitor, it’s going to change the businessman’s attitude towards the market. So, the voters will become stronger; they will be wooing them left, right and centre. I’m sure the APC will want to do more to meet the needs of the voters and kill apathy. Nigerian voters are apathetic. There is an overwhelming social discontent in the country. There is also anti-government sentiment in the country.
So, the only way you can blunt those sharp edges is by putting in place social policies. So, the coming together of the PDP and the Labour Party would make the APC have no choice but to meet the voters midway in responding to their yearnings.
Is the PDP playing the role of the opposition party effectively?
When the APC was in opposition, I could recall how Alhaji Lai Mohammed was handling the opposition media machine. He had a very sharp pen and tongue that would not give any breathing space to the PDP under former President Goodluck Jonathan. Unfortunately, the two parties put together have not been able to live up to expectations of being opposition parties. The Labour Party and the PDP have not been able to marshal that strength that an opposition party should be able to pass through to challenge the status quo. They have been too complacent. The people out of government and non-state actors seem to have even been doing better. The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, musters some strength but it seems not to be strong enough when you look at the way the APC was thrashing the opposition.
The National Chairman of the APC is passing through some ordeals. There is an allegation that the President wants to sacrifice him to bring in Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso. Do you think that’s a good political strategy?
Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, to some extent, could be said to have possibly become a political liability and embarrassment to the APC because of his past deeds. Don’t forget the total number of votes in Kano State is huge, close to two million, won by Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso. Kano will naturally be the target of any party that wants to win because of that huge number. So, sacrificing the national chairman might be a good riddance to appease the voters in Kano State. If Kwankanso is ready to forgo his presidential ambition, then I would say that everything is sealed and delivered for the APC in 2027.
Should the President now embarrass the national chairman on the altar of Kano votes considering that Ganduje has been his loyal ally?
In politics, there are no permanent friends. Politicians are greedy for votes. Nobody is too big; people can even sacrifice their children or wives if the wives become a political liability that can hinder their chance of grabbing power. Ganduje becomes a liability if the Kano State Government continues to try and embarrass him. Why should anyone who is serious about fighting corruption be a friend of Ganduje? If I were the president and Kwankwaso moved in my direction, I wouldn’t ignore Kwakwanso. It would be a political suicide to look away because he has demonstrated that he can deliver Kano State and Jigawa State as well. He has clout and mass appeal.
So, the President has a good excuse to relieve him of the position or ask him to step aside. How can Ganduje be leading a ruling party with the moral baggage he is carrying? He can be given an ambassadorial posting.
Do you see APC returning to power in Osun in the future?
It’s much easier for the APC to come back to power in Osun State if it gets its act right. You have different factions in the party. I think Adeleke coming to power is by default because the APC failed to reconcile with itself. APC in Osun, just as the PDP at the national level, is a victim of failure of internal party democracy and reconciliation.
Again, the APC can ride to power without much challenge if it swallows its pride. If the interest of the APC is to produce the governor, it must be ready to draw nearer people that are becoming alienated from the party and be ready to reconcile with them. If you really want power, nothing is too big to sacrifice.
Then, there’s also the challenge of the choice of candidates for the APC. I hope APC is going to have the right candidate that can really challenge the incumbent governor.
Let’s look at Rivers State; there is a big crisis there. How do you think that the issues between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, can be resolved?
I’ve reflected on the development in Rivers State and my conclusion is that Wike is stretching his luck too far. He seems to be exhausting the goodwill that he enjoys in River State. He is pushing the state to the precipice, which is not good. There’s a point at which people become tired of an individual. He has been a governor before. Why does he want to have a third term indirectly?
Wike is trying to ask for a pound of flesh from the governor and that is making things difficult for him. This doesn’t allow him to concentrate on governance. He can’t be in Abuja and be controlling happenings in Rivers State. Wike should allow Fubara to have his own turn at governance.
