Donald Trump is on course to retake the White House in a historic U.S. election with sweeping consequences for the world.
The Republican clinched three critical battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia — and is ahead in vote-counting elsewhere. Republicans also regained control of the Senate, giving the party significant power over law-making and presidential appointments.
While the outcome is not yet final, the emerging picture following Tuesday’s vote is grim for Vice President Harris and her Democratic Party.
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For the rest of the world, the implications of a Trump comeback would be profound. After four years bitterly complaining that he was robbed of victory in 2020, he has vowed “retribution” against his opponents if he returns. His second term, if it comes, might be even more disruptive to the global order than his first.
European governments have been frantically preparing for what a new Trump administration would mean, in particular for America’s support for Ukraine in its effort to repel invading Russian forces. Trump has boasted of ending the war within a day, a prospect that makes Ukraine and its allies fear they will be forced to cede territory to Moscow. He’s also talked tough on NATO, threatening to curtail American support for the military alliance that has underpinned European security since the Cold War.
World trade is also a prime target for the unpredictable Republican. He proposed hitting China with 60 percent tariffs, and slapping a tariff on all other imports of up to 20 percent. European countries such as Germany, which sells cars to the U.S., are particularly vulnerable to policy options that include a 100 percent tariff on all imported vehicles.
Politically, Trumpian politics is a million miles away from the conventional European mainstream. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz never hid his preference for the Democrats. Trump recently called the EU a “mini China”. It wasn’t a compliment.
For America, the election marks a historic fork in the road. When the counting is finally done, the disruptor-in-chief may be on his way back to power, emboldened and with the unique claim to being the first convicted criminal elected President. If the remaining swing states break for Harris, the U.S. will send its first woman to the White House.
American presidential elections are not straightforward popular votes. The candidate with the most support across the U.S. doesn’t always win. Instead, there are 50 state-wide contests and one in the District of Columbia, which together feed into a system known as the “Electoral College.” The eventual winner is the candidate with the most Electoral College votes across the country.
Before the counting began on Tuesday evening, pollsters and commentators had been predicting the closest contest perhaps ever recorded. Yet with most states called already, Harris has clearly underperformed while Trump has made more gains than the polls predicted in key battlegrounds. This would be the third election in a row that the pollsters have under-estimated support for Trump, if the pattern is confirmed by final results.
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Most analysts believed there were only ever seven truly competitive battlegrounds this year. These were three so-called Rust Belt states in the former industrial heartlands — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona in the southern and western parts of the country.
North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania have been called for Trump already. The other key states he needs for victory are leaning his way, too, as counting continues.
Voters across the country say their top priority this time was “democracy,” according to exit polling reported by NBC News, followed by the economy, abortion and migration. Trump is making inroads winning support from black and Latino men, in two crucial swing states — North Carolina and Georgia, surveys suggested.
The weeks and days leading up to the election have been tense. The campaign split the country with many voters feeling they have a terrible choice to make between the outlandish and unpredictable Trump and Harris, who has struggled to define herself or set out what she would do differently to President Joe Biden if she wins.
Name-calling and violence
The two sides have traded insults, with Harris branding Trump a fascist, while he has called her a “sleazebag.” The specter of violence has haunted the political atmosphere, too. Trump was targeted twice by would-be assassins, once escaping by the narrowest of margins as a bullet cut his ear. He has also indulged in his own violent rhetoric in recent days, suggesting Harris should fight Mike Tyson and one of her supporters should be shot at.
Security forces in America are on high alert, especially after the Jan. 6 riot in 2021 when a Trump-backing mob stormed the Capitol in Washington, D.C. after he refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 election.
This year, too, Trump and his team have been stoking the narrative that the contest is unfair or corrupted, without providing evidence that has satisfied the authorities. A judge in Georgia threw out Republican complaints over the process Tuesday.
Bomb threats believed to originate from Russian disinformation peddlers targeted Georgia and potentially Michigan, both critical battlegrounds.
There are 538 Electoral College votes in total, spread over 50 states and the District of Columbia. A simple majority — 270 votes — in the Electoral College will be enough for victory.
Trump is spending election night at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, watching the results come in on his favorite and most supportive TV station, Fox News. Guests are sipping champagne. Among those seen at the club were Elon Musk, the tech billionaire and vocal Trump backer, and Nigel Farage, the British MP and Reform UK party leader.
(Source: Politico)
