• Whither Iran? – Independent Newspaper Nigeria

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     In the present constellation of global power and influence, the Islamic Re­public of Iran, the land of Ayatollahs, has been angling for a place of rele­vance and she has thus picked the United States of America as her favorite target. This fiendish pivot in Iranian foreign pol­icy occurred in the aftermath of the Is­lamic revolution of 1979 (popularly called the “1979 Revolution”), which saw to the bloody overthrow of the then pro-western, pro-industrialization and secularly-mind­ed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi by a bel­ligerent coalition of religious clerics and Islamic fundamentalists, workers and stu­dents led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

    It is well-known that the Shah was a very staunch ally of the United States which he served as a bulwark and reliable asset for the West and their ideological inter­ests during the Cold War era in exchange for US protection and sustenance of his monarchy. Khomeini however loathed the influence of the West, especially the US overbearing influence in the affairs of Iran and proceeded to mount a prolonged campaign of resistance through ceaseless preachments encased in audio cassette tapes and caustic pamphleteering issued from his underground base abroad.

    He found willing allies amongst the Communists, Socialists and Islamist ag­itators scattered across the country cul­minating in massive protestations and strikes which eventually forced the Shah into exile early in 1979. His dramatic de­parture paved the way for Khomeini’s tri­umphant return from exile and immedi­ately assumed power as Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” a semi-deity of sort.

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    Expectedly, he blamed the US for prop­ping up and sustaining the Shah’s brutal oppressive hold on the country resulting in bloodshed and widespread persecutions of opposition groups and skillfully rallied the opposition with his ceaseless demand for an Islamic revolution. He persisted in provoking America through many unorth­odox means including the occupation of her embassy in Teheran by angry Iranian youths with more than 50 embassy staff held hostage for a whoppy 444 days with the daily chant of “death to America, the Great Satan!”

    He unrelentingly undermined all pos­sible American interests including the promotion of the devastating OPEC oil embargo of 1980, a development which badly affected US economy and domestic politics that saw to the landslide defeat of President Jimmy Carter by Ronald Rea­gan, allegedly for mishandling of the over­whelming Iranian crisis.

    From the foregoing, it should be easy to see the basis of the long-standing ani­mosity between the US and Iran, the type that places Iran in President Bush’s “Axis of Evil,” nations that must be punished ei­ther through “bringing them to justice” or “taking justice to them” in the aftermath of the 9/11terrorists attacks on America. In the absence of a direct opportunity to attack Iran, the US orchestrated a raft of global sanctions and economic blockages designed to cripple the Islamic Republic.

    To the surprise of Western strate­gists, rather than cave in, Iran managed to endure the wholesale freezing of her foreign accounts and seizure of her over­seas assets running into billions of dol­lars coupled with suffocating blockades and massive diplomatic bad-mounting to still emerge as a regional power with tentacles spread deeply into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and many far-flung places like Nigeria, where the Shi-ite Islamic sect ex­ists, being Iran’s powerful religious export. We saw them in action a few days ago in Abuja. Iran soon became a thorn in the American flesh as she would be fingered in nearly all the crises, military, political and economic, rocking the Middle East and elsewhere. The US has accordingly set up Israel and other satellite outposts as veritable launchpads for curbing Iran’s irritating expansionist missions through militant entities like Hezbollah in Leba­non and Hamas in Gaza.

    It could be said that the Iranians have audaciously picked up the gauntlet as they have striven, against all odds, to maintain a forward-looking economy with a corre­sponding middle class that is intellectu­ally and technically capable of forging a virile industrialized economy in the face of excruciating sanctions. It must howev­er be reiterated that the foundations for the present Iranian economy were laid by late Shah who desperately wanted a west­ern-type society and the resulting “cultur­al shift” can still be seen in the continuous donning of European-styled suits by Ira­nians elite, a hangover from the official pro-western days.

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    Unfortunately, the initial ideological pu­rity of the early Khomeini administration gradually yielded to the old-fashioned cor­ruption, greed and hedonism of the past which soon led to serious dissatisfaction and resentment by the populace as evi­denced by multiple riots and youth protes­tations that exploded across the country in recent years despite the bloody repressive methodology of the Islamic clerics.

    A regime weakened from within is not likely to hold out well externally and so, the Tehran theocratic government began enacting unpopular policies that would soon expose its morally conflicted under­belly. Iran does not have many friends more so as she has been tied to Hamas with all imaginable evils such as the har­boring of a vengeful nuclear capability, an aspiration which the US has vowed will never materialize irrespective of the fa­mous UN-led Iranian Nuclear Deal.

    When recently Netanyahu announced the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Iranian government immediately swore to revenge the killing, a threat which immediately set the US hawkish warmongering oper­atives into an overdrive. It was as if Iran was to walk into a deadly booby-trap that has been laid against her for years.

    Iran may be doing well in her proxy and largely asymmetric engagements in many places but she is still no match to the well-calibrated military machine ar­rayed against her by Pentagon that still sees her as an unfinished business as far as the eventual liquidation of the “Axis of Evil” is concerned and one silly move could easily have led to Iran being placed on the crosshairs just as Iraq, Syria and Libya were in the machination of the West’s military authorities: reducing them to rubbles.

    Eventually, so it seems, the Iranian threat fizzled out and the expected world-wide Armageddon shelved which was a pretty wise move by the habitual fire-spit­ting, martyrdom-seeking Iranian Mullahs. Even Hezbollah’s threat of a massive re­venge quickly paled into the launching of 300 missiles, most of which were destroyed mid-air and the rest out of targets. Of course, Israel, ever-waiting for such op­portunities to wreak havoc, retaliatorily fired some lethal missiles hitting Hezbol­lah military installations and operational targets deep inside Lebanon.

    It is noteworthy that Hamas who had vowed not to participate in the current round of ceasefire talks in Doha stealthi­ly sent a symbolic delegation there over­night. One of the reasons that Hamas is not getting a fair deal from the US in spite of the horrors of Gaza is because they are considered as allies of Hezbollah which is a certified fighting arm of Iran and, therefore, a terrorist entity that should be destroyed no matter what.

    By suddenly stalling on her loudly vowed “immediate” and “massive” re­venge on Israel over the killing of their Hezbollah and Hamas guests, Iran can only be seen to have beaten a calculated retreat, considering her overall fighting limitations. Many observers actually saw it as a wise survivalist move, i.e., hoping to fight another day. Considering the enor­mous embarrassments that the Iranian has caused the US, it should be expected that any political party that gains power in Washington will maintain the same policy of curtailment and possibly, annihilation, against Teheran and any assumption to the contrary is simply naive.

    The US harbors an open grudge against Iran and there are plenty of retaliatory cards on her table with which to militari­ly add Iran to Libya, Iraq, Syria and else­where in the Middle East that have been literarily weakened out of economic and social viability. So, let there be some wis­dom in Iran.

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