The attention of the world is on Nigeria as 93.4 million voters are expected to vote in the general elections scheduled for February 25 and March 11, 2023. The presidential election is particularly important for Nigerians and non-Nigerians alike. Nigerians worry about numerous issues, including heightened security challenges, high unemployment and inflation, high-level executive corruption, constant fuel scarcity, falling standard of living – occasioned by the depreciation of the Naira, the frequent industrial actions by the Academic Staff Union of Universities and the Nigerian Medical Association. To escape these difficult times, some privileged families now ‘Japa’ to foreign countries with the hope of adequate security and a better future for their children. But for many others who are dissatisfied with the current situation and unable to ‘Japa’ see the 2023 general elections as an opportunity to reset the country by voting a leader who will stir the ship of the country in the right direction and save the country from the looming economic, socio-political catastrophes.
On the global side, especially the ECOWAS countries, – Ghana, Liberia, Togo, Benin et al, this election is theirs as they worry about the aftermath of the polls. They wish Nigeria would conduct peaceful and conclusive elections that Liberia and Sierra Leone can emulate. Their wish is for Nigeria to conduct an election that will not plug the country into a democratic crisis. A political crisis arising from elections in Nigeria will have adverse effects in the region, particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone, whose elections come later this year. With a population of about estimated to be above 200 million, Nigeria is nearly half of the total West African population of about 426 million. If the 2023 presidential election is manipulated or perceived to be manipulated in a specific direction, it is likely to lead to political violence. It will be a monumental crisis in history, worse than the displacement impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War.
As the country heads to the elections, which will be keenly contested, there are vital issues which continue to be of great concern; such as security, cost of governance, economy, education, health, power, agriculture, ethnic and religious division and food security among others. With the recent Osun Election Tribunal judgement, citizens are now more worried about the use of technology and electoral transparency, in addition to rampant electoral corruption (vote trading), voter turnout, and the electronic transmission of results, which are supposed to promote integrity in the process and enhance voters’ confidence in the electoral architecture.
Nigeria is currently facing a pandemic of insecurity; that is, rising security threats daily. Insecurity does not only worry citizens, but the conduct of the 2023 general elections amidst the pandemic of insecurity is a major concern. The big question remains, will the poll hold in the insurgency-dominated areas of the North-East, the bandits’ zone of the North-West, and the unknown gunmen-dominated areas of the South-East among other areas?
And even though we know Nigeria is not poor, it is a fact that the country, endowed with abundant natural and human resources, is poorly led. With a growth projection set for an average of 3.2 per cent in between 2022 and 2024, Nigeria is largely subject to downside risks, which among others include the continued decline in oil production, and impact of the security concerns. The continued scarcity of foreign exchange and tighter liquidity will have adverse effect on the economic activity in the non-oil sector, which will continue to undermine overall macroeconomic stability. High inflation and the continued fiscal and debt pressures add up to the many economic challenges to deal with.
There are concerns over the high cost of governance, which the current administration promised to reduce, but increased with frivolities. Many countries of the world are making efforts at reducing the cost of governance so as to fund infrastructural and human development for the greater good. In India for example, the country introduced e-governance in administration, which led to a drop in the cost of running its government. Others including Ghana, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Thailand, and Kenya have initiated actions, including reducing the number of political appointees and frivolities in the act of administration; thereby making the government efficient in the management of its scarce resources. For Nigeria to make any meaningful progress it must interrogate a cost-effective management system capable of maximising the nation’s scarce resources for the benefit of all.
As signed by the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), on February 25, 2022, the Electoral Act, 2022 empowers the Independent National Electoral Commission to adopt technology to improve on electoral transparency and integrity. A major concern to citizens is doubts about the credibility of the game changer, the Bi-model Voter Accreditation System in dealing with election manipulation. INEC has continually maintained that it will use the BVAS device to eliminate ‘ghost voters’ and transmit polling units’ results (Form EC8A) to its own portal – the INEC Result Viewing Portal. But citizens’ confidence has been largely impacted by the Osun Election Tribunal judgement, added to disinformation which continues to delegitimise the umpire. Evidence from the off-cycle state elections, Anambra in 2021, Ekiti and Osun (2022), shows that INEC used BVAS to ensure a faster and more efficient voter accreditation process, which significantly reduced waiting time and ensured calmness in the polling units. In addition, voters are able to track their polling units’ results online – a milestone in the country’s electoral system.
Since the BVAS has eliminated the falsification of polling units’ results and other forms of electoral manipulations, politicians have increased their pattern of vote-buying. Will the redesign naira notes and the subsequent deadline of February 10, 2023, frustrate politicians’ plans to massively buy votes?
In conclusion, will voter turnout be massive in the 2023 general elections? Data from the Ekiti and Osun states governorship polls show a decline in the turnout of voters. Stakeholders, therefore, must use the countdown to the presidential election to massively mobilise the young people (18-34 years), whose 37 million registered youthful population is amazing to increase voters’ turnout in the 2023 general elections.
